NERC Data Catalogue Service
Extreme precipitation return level changes at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours for 2050 and 2070, derived from UKCP Local Projections on a 5km grid for the FUTURE-DRAINAGE Project
Extreme short-duration precipitation changes, derived from the UKCP Local projections at 5km resolution (Kendon et al 2021) have been estimated using a spatial statistical model as part of the NERC-funded Future-Drainage project. Future changes ("uplifts") are estimated for 2050 and 2070 for RCP8.5 compared to the baseline of 1990 for precipitation durations of 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-hours. 2070 is the central year for 2060-2080 ("UKCP Local TS3") time-slice, and 2050 value is an interpolation between TS3 and 2020-2040 ("UKCP Local TS2") time-slice. 2050 is an important date for the UK water industry in its delivery of Drainage and Wastewater Management Plans (DWMPs; Water UK, 2019). Return level changes are provided for 2, 30, and 100-year return periods. The data is on the OSGB 1936/EPSG:27700 projection at 5km resolution. The underlying statistical model is described in Youngman (2018, 2020) and is applied individually to each of the twelve UKCP Local ensemble members. Future changes plus their uncertainties from each ensemble member are then combined following the method described in Fosser et al (2020).
Two estimates of future changes are provided from this "super-ensemble" by estimating percentiles from the distribution obtained using the Fosser et al (2020) method - a central (50%) and high (95%) estimate. Values are rounded to nearest 5%. The future changes are available for each 5km grid point within the borders of the United Kingdom, provided as ERSI shapefiles and a CSV (comma-separated values) file, with separate files for different durations.
Default
Identification info
- Metadata Language
- English (en)
- Dataset Reference Date ()
- 2021-07-20T09:09:59
- Dataset Reference Date ()
- 2021-07-20T09:09:59
- Identifier
- NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis / 18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef
- Maintenance and update frequency
- notPlanned
- Update scope
- dataset
- Keywords
-
- Not defined
- GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 ()
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- atmospheric conditions
- Limitations on Public Access
- otherRestrictions
- Other constraints
- Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
- Use constraints
- otherRestrictions
- Spatial representation type
- grid
- Topic category
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- Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
))
- Begin date
- 2040-01-01T00:00:00
- End date
- 2080-12-31T00:00:00
- Code
- WGS 84
Distribution Information
- Data format
-
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Data are provided as Shapefiles and CSV
()
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Data are provided as Shapefiles and CSV
()
- Resource Locator
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CEDA Data Catalogue Page
Detail and access information for the resource
- Resource Locator
-
DOWNLOAD
Download Data
- Resource Locator
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Fosser G, Kendon EJ, Stephenson D, Tucker S (2020) Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections. Geophysical Research Letters 47:e2020GL088151.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
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Kendon, E. J., et al (2021) Update to UKCP Local 2.2km projections, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
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Water UK (2019). A framework for the production of Drainage and Wastewater Management Plans.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
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Youngman BD (2018) Generalized Additive Models for Exceedances of High Thresholds With an Application to Return Level Estimation for U.S. Wind Gusts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1-19.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
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Youngman BD (2020) evgam: An R package for Generalized Additive Extreme Value Models. Journal of Statistical Software.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
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Guidance for applying rainfall uplifts
No further details.
- Resource Locator
-
CEDA Data Catalogue Page
Detail and access information for the resource
- Resource Locator
-
DOWNLOAD
Download Data
- Resource Locator
-
Fosser G, Kendon EJ, Stephenson D, Tucker S (2020) Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections. Geophysical Research Letters 47:e2020GL088151.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
-
Kendon, E. J., et al (2021) Update to UKCP Local 2.2km projections, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
-
Water UK (2019). A framework for the production of Drainage and Wastewater Management Plans.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
-
Youngman BD (2018) Generalized Additive Models for Exceedances of High Thresholds With an Application to Return Level Estimation for U.S. Wind Gusts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1-19.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
-
Youngman BD (2020) evgam: An R package for Generalized Additive Extreme Value Models. Journal of Statistical Software.
No further details.
- Resource Locator
-
Guidance for applying rainfall uplifts
No further details.
- Quality Scope
- dataset
Report
- Dataset Reference Date ()
- 2010-12-08
- Statement
- Data is derived from updated OSGB-grid UKCP Local data (released July 2021; Kendon et al 2021; catalogue url: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/e304987739e04cdc960598fa5e4439d0 )
Metadata
- File identifier
- 18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef XML
- Metadata Language
- English (en)
- Character set
- 8-bit variable size UCS Transfer Format, based on ISO/IEC 10646
- Resource type
- dataset
- Metadata Date
- 2022-05-13T01:03:13
- Metadata standard name
- UK GEMINI
- Metadata standard version
- 2.3
