NERC Data Catalogue Service
Initialised seasonal forecast of the 20th Century
This dataset contains initialised seasonal hindcast experiments for the 20th century, produced using a version of the ECMWF's Intergrated Forecasting System (IFS), and initialised from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-20C/CERA-20C). Two types of hindcast experiment are included in this dataset:
CSF-20C (Coupled Seasonal Forecasts): This is a hindcast performed with the model fully coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model, initialised from CERA-20C reanalysis data.
ASF-20C (Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts): This is a hindcast performed with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions at the surface, initialised form ERA-20C reanalysis data.
Hindcasts were started every year between 1901-2009 (inclusive) on the 1st February, 1st May, 1st August and 1st November and are run out for four months from the start date. For each start date, there are either 51 or 25 ensemble members (depending on the season/hindcast).
Monthly mean values for the following variables have been archived here on CEDA (in alphabetical order):
LHF (latent heat-flux)
OLR (outgoing long-wave radiation)
PREC (precipitation)
SHF (sensible heat-flux)
SIC (sea-ice concentration)
SLP (sea-level pressure)
SST (sea surface temperature)
T2 (2m temperature)
U250 (zonal wind at 250 hPa level)
U850 (zonal wind at 850 hPa level)
Us (10m zonal wind speed)
V250 (meridional wind at 250 hPa level)
V850 (meridional wind at 850 hPa level)
Vs (10m meridional wind speed)
Z500 (geopotential at 500 hPa level)
Files for each ensemble member are archived separately and the filetree is in the following format:
[EXPname]/[VARname]monthly_[EXPname]_[INITmonth]START_ENSmems/[VARname]monthly_[YEAR]_M[ENSnum].nc
Where:
[EXPname] =CSF-20C or ASF-20C
[VARname] = Z500, Vs, V850, ... etc.
[INITmonth] = Feb, May, Aug or Nov
[YEAR] =1901, 1902, 1903, ... etc.
[ENSnum] =0, 1, 2, 3, ... etc.
More details of these hindcasts and some previous analysis of these datasets have appeared in the following papers:
Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A., & Palmer, T. (2017). Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi‐decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(703), 917-926.
O'Reilly, C. H., Heatley, J., MacLeod, D., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Schaller, N., & Woollings, T. (2017). Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(11), 5729-5738.
MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Palmer, T., & Weisheimer, A. (2018). Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters, 19(5), e815.
Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L., & Shaffrey, L. (2019). Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(16), 10159-10167.
Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T. N., Johnson, S., & Palmer, T. N. (2019). How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 140-159.
Weisheimer, A., Befort, D. J., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T., O’Reilly, C., & Strømmen, K. (2020). Seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (2020).
Default
Identification info
- Metadata Language
- English (en)
- Dataset Reference Date ()
- 2020-05-04T13:13:11
- Dataset Reference Date ()
- 2020-05-04T13:13:11
- Identifier
- Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) / 6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45
- Maintenance and update frequency
- notPlanned
- Update scope
- dataset
- Keywords
-
- Seasonal
- Forecast
- model
- atmospheric
- GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 ()
-
- atmospheric conditions
- Limitations on Public Access
- otherRestrictions
- Other constraints
- Access to these data is available to any registered CEDA user. Please Login or Register for an account to gain access.
- Use constraints
- otherRestrictions
- Spatial representation type
- grid
- Topic category
-
- Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
))
- Begin date
- 1900-01-01T00:00:00
- End date
- 2010-12-31T00:00:00
- Code
- WGS 84
Distribution Information
- Data format
-
-
Data are netCDF formatted.
()
-
Data are netCDF formatted.
()
- Resource Locator
-
CEDA Data Catalogue Page
Detail and access information for the resource
- Resource Locator
-
DOWNLOAD
Download Data
- Resource Locator
-
CEDA Data Catalogue Page
Detail and access information for the resource
- Resource Locator
-
DOWNLOAD
Download Data
- Quality Scope
- dataset
Report
- Dataset Reference Date ()
- 2010-12-08
- Statement
- Data downloaded from the ECMWF MARS archive at the resolution provided here and converted to netcdf (from grin). The data were then delivered to the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis for archiving.
Metadata
- File identifier
- 6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45 XML
- Metadata Language
- English (en)
- Character set
- 8-bit variable size UCS Transfer Format, based on ISO/IEC 10646
- Resource type
- dataset
- Metadata Date
- 2023-01-13T01:44:17
- Metadata standard name
- UK GEMINI
- Metadata standard version
- 2.3
