6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45
English
8-bit variable size UCS Transfer Format, based on ISO/IEC 10646
dataset
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
01235446432
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
Harwell
Oxon
OX11 0QX
United Kingdom
support@ceda.ac.uk
pointOfContact
2024-03-29T00:33:58
UK GEMINI
2.3
WGS 84
Initialised seasonal forecast of the 20th Century
2020-05-04T13:13:11
publication
2020-05-04T13:13:11
creation
http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45
6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
This dataset contains initialised seasonal hindcast experiments for the 20th century, produced using a version of the ECMWF's Intergrated Forecasting System (IFS), and initialised from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-20C/CERA-20C). Two types of hindcast experiment are included in this dataset:
CSF-20C (Coupled Seasonal Forecasts): This is a hindcast performed with the model fully coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model, initialised from CERA-20C reanalysis data.
ASF-20C (Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts): This is a hindcast performed with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions at the surface, initialised form ERA-20C reanalysis data.
Hindcasts were started every year between 1901-2009 (inclusive) on the 1st February, 1st May, 1st August and 1st November and are run out for four months from the start date. For each start date, there are either 51 or 25 ensemble members (depending on the season/hindcast).
Monthly mean values for the following variables have been archived here on CEDA (in alphabetical order):
LHF (latent heat-flux)
OLR (outgoing long-wave radiation)
PREC (precipitation)
SHF (sensible heat-flux)
SIC (sea-ice concentration)
SLP (sea-level pressure)
SST (sea surface temperature)
T2 (2m temperature)
U250 (zonal wind at 250 hPa level)
U850 (zonal wind at 850 hPa level)
Us (10m zonal wind speed)
V250 (meridional wind at 250 hPa level)
V850 (meridional wind at 850 hPa level)
Vs (10m meridional wind speed)
Z500 (geopotential at 500 hPa level)
Files for each ensemble member are archived separately and the filetree is in the following format:
[EXPname]/[VARname]monthly_[EXPname]_[INITmonth]START_ENSmems/[VARname]monthly_[YEAR]_M[ENSnum].nc
Where:
[EXPname] =CSF-20C or ASF-20C
[VARname] = Z500, Vs, V850, ... etc.
[INITmonth] = Feb, May, Aug or Nov
[YEAR] =1901, 1902, 1903, ... etc.
[ENSnum] =0, 1, 2, 3, ... etc.
More details of these hindcasts and some previous analysis of these datasets have appeared in the following papers:
Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A., & Palmer, T. (2017). Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi‐decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(703), 917-926.
O'Reilly, C. H., Heatley, J., MacLeod, D., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Schaller, N., & Woollings, T. (2017). Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(11), 5729-5738.
MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Palmer, T., & Weisheimer, A. (2018). Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters, 19(5), e815.
Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L., & Shaffrey, L. (2019). Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(16), 10159-10167.
Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T. N., Johnson, S., & Palmer, T. N. (2019). How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 140-159.
Weisheimer, A., Befort, D. J., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T., O’Reilly, C., & Strømmen, K. (2020). Seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (2020).
Weisheimer, Antje
Unavailable
author
Unavailable
author
O'Reilly, Christopher
Unavailable
author
Unavailable
author
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
custodian
01235446432
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
Harwell
Oxon
OX11 0QX
United Kingdom
support@ceda.ac.uk
custodian
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
distributor
01235446432
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
Harwell
Oxon
OX11 0QX
United Kingdom
support@ceda.ac.uk
distributor
O'Reilly, Christopher
Unavailable
principal_investigator
Unavailable
principalInvestigator
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
point_of_contact
01235446432
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
Harwell
Oxon
OX11 0QX
United Kingdom
support@ceda.ac.uk
pointofContact
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
publisher
01235446432
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
Harwell
Oxon
OX11 0QX
United Kingdom
support@ceda.ac.uk
publisher
notPlanned
dataset
Seasonal
Forecast
model
atmospheric
atmospheric conditions
theme
GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
2008-06-01
publication
otherRestrictions
Access to these data is available to any registered CEDA user. Please Login or Register for an account to gain access.
otherRestrictions
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/ . When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
grid
English
climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
-180.0
180.0
-90.0
90.0
1900-01-01T00:00:00
2010-12-31T00:00:00
Data are netCDF formatted.
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
Data Center Contact
01235446432
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
Harwell
Oxon
OX11 0QX
United Kingdom
support@ceda.ac.uk
distributor
http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45
CEDA Data Catalogue Page
Detail and access information for the resource
information
http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/deposited2020/seasonal-forecasts-20thc/data/
DOWNLOAD
Download Data
download
dataset
Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services
2010-12-08
Data downloaded from the ECMWF MARS archive at the resolution provided here and converted to netcdf (from grin). The data were then delivered to the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis for archiving.